Robert Prechter, the head of the Socionomics Institute, recently published a paper with some very distressing statistics that may just predict the end of the world as we know it, a.k.a. the re-election of President Obama. According to his study, a booming stock market usually leads to a landslide re-election. And as we have already reported, our liberally biased stock market is booming right now, despite the evil incompetence of our foreign socialist President.
After extensive statistical analysis, using a number of different methodologies, Prechter and his colleagues found one conclusion that consistently showed up when looking at re-elections going back all the way to the very beginning of the United States as a country: the margin of victory of an incumbent facing reelection is positively related to the percent change in the stock market over the prior three years before the election. As a result, the elections that were held after the largest three-year increases in the stock market lead to landslide re-elections of the incumbent, while elections that were held after the largest three-year decreases in the stock market lead to landslide ousters of the incumbent and election of the challenger.
This statistical result is surprisingly robust, with the same pattern showing up over the entire history of the country and even when special efforts are made to remove other possible factors, such as the GDP and employment.
If we take this statistical pattern seriously, it spells big trouble for the upcoming election. Even though President Obama is a Kenyan Muslim socialist who plays basketball and hates successful people, the fact remains that from November 1, 2009 to September 28, 2012 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 50%.
Does this really mean Obama is destined to win? And possibly in a landslide victory?
Or is it just one more example of statistics and numbers exhibiting a disgusting liberal bias????
We report, you decide.
graph source: “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results” by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker, and Matthew Lampert.
graph found via: Social Science Research Network