Obamacare will cause a surge in part-time employment, any minute now!

Just yesterday, November 11th 2014, the conservative “Power Line Blog” sang songs of doom and gloom for the Affordable Care Act (i.e. Obamacare), and predicted: “2015 is the year when the employer mandate begins to take effect (it is phased in over several years, depending on the size of the employer). As the mandate takes effect, many employers will either lay off workers or reduce their hours below 30 per week so that they are not eligible for health insurance, or they will terminate their plans altogether.”

It’s important to point out that the above quote is from YESTERDAY, since it essentially is the same prediction that conservatives made in 2010:

“Employers may decide to limit the number of full-time employees, favoring part-time employees instead.”

And in 2011:

Obamacare Will Price Less Skilled Workers Out of Full-Time Jobs

And in 2012:

Will ObamaCare turn us into a nation of part-time employees?

And in 2013:

Wendy’s Franchisee Slashes Employee Hours To Sidestep Obamacare

 

Yet, weirdly, when you look at the actual data on part-time employment, shown in this graph below made from an analysis of BLS data, they show that although part-time employment surged as a consequence of the 2008 recession, it has actually decreased slowly but steadily each of the years since Obamacare was signed into law.

Full time vs. part time employment and Obamacare a.k.a. the Affordable Care Act

Decreased each year… despite each year conservative pundits screaming that surely–without a doubt–Obamacare will lead us to a “part time economy.”

That’s why it is so notable that now, in 2014, we have yet another conservative blogger predicting that this time no really honest-to-goodness 2015 is the actual year it will happen! We will just see a skyrocket in part-time employment, because of Obamacare.

Really. This time. Any minute now!

You just wait.

 

Obamacare: conservative logic versus liberal facts

WE HATE HEALTH CARE!You are a conservative. You know how to use your brain. You believe things because you have thought them through, and they make sense to you. They seem logical. Unlike liberals, who believe things that totally make NO SENSE AT ALL, just because they have “statistics” to back them up.

Nowhere is difference between conservatives and liberals more apparent than with Obamacare. Let’s take a look.

CONSERVATIVE LOGIC: Employers will reduce their number of full-time employees in order to avoid the costs associated with Obamacare. We will become a part-time employment nation!
LIBERAL FACTS: The  Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has found that part-time workers in the U.S. fell by 300,000 since the Affordable Care Act became law.  In just the past year, full-time employment grew by over 2 million.
VERDICT: Conservative logic sounds good, so it must be right. The statistics must have liberal bias.

 

CONSERVATIVE LOGIC: Millions and millions of people are losing their health insurance because of Obamacare! I know it must be true because I keep hearing these stories!

LIBERAL FACTS: The fact is, millions and millions of people had their policies cancelled every year, before the Affordable Care Act came into being. On average, only 17 percent of people ever retained coverage for more than two years prior to the Affordable Care Act becoming law. After the ACA became law, by contrast, only a relatively small number of people have been asked to change insurance policies because their existing policies were not compliant with the new standards:
Survey of cancellations since Obamacare

VERDICT: I heard tons of horror stories on T.V. This obviously outweighs these actual numbers. Numbers have a liberal bias.

 

CONSERVATIVE LOGIC: There will still be uninsured people after Obamacare is fully implemented. The whole point of Obamacare was to insure everybody. Therefore, Obamacare was completely pointless and achieved nothing.

LIBERAL FACTS: The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index shows that 15.9 percent of American adults are now uninsured, down from 17.1 percent for the end of 2013.  That is about 3 million to 4 million people who have coverage now who did not have it before.  The total number of Americans without health insurance is projected to reach its lowest number since 2008.

Plus, it is worth looking at why some of the people who remain uninsured got that way. There are currently 5 to 8 million people who can’t access Medicaid because their Republican political leaders oppose Obamacare. This isn’t a failure of Obamacare, it is a direct result of obstruction from conservatives. Nothing makes this more obvious than looking down at the breakdown by state of the total number of uninsured people before and after the implementation of the Affordable Care Act: notice that those states that opted in show dramatic reductions in uninsured citizens, while states that opted out do not show the same reduction: Uninsured numbers by state before and after Obamacare

VERDICT: All these numbers are confusing. The bottom line is that some people still aren’t insured, which means Obamacare didn’t solve every single problem, which means it was pointless and a complete failure. How can you argue with that kind of logic?

Clearly, you can’t.